Zvi Mazel : "Sudan del Sud, la colomba della speranza"

On Saturday, July 9, South Sudan will formally declare its independence,  after half a century of bloody clashes with the North which claimed the life of more than two and a half million people; several millions had to flee and became refugees. A few thousands of those came to Israel in search of asylum after having crossed through Egypt. The conflict had been triggered by the refusal of the Christian and animists dwellers of the South to submit to the Sharia imposed by the Islamic regime of Khartoum.
Great rejoicing is supposed to mark the day, with a wealth of ceremonies, prayers, concerts and sports events. Some 3 500 dignitaries from all over the world are expected, including 30 presidents and heads of state from Africa and high ranking representatives from many countries. Sudanese president Omar el Bashir, who has confirmed his coming, will be the guest of honor together with U.N secretary general Ban Ki Moon; both will deliver keynotes addresses.
The new country will be called “Republic of South Sudan”. Juba, the former  regional seat, will be the new capital. It will be a presidential type of government, with a president elected for a four years term. The many local tongues will be recognized as national languages, with English being the official language of the country, instead of Arabic as was the rule under the Khartoum regime. South Sudan will become the 53rd African country and 193rd member of the United Nation. It has a population of some nine millions divided into some 200 ethnic groups, the largest being the Dinka with three million people.
It had taken half a century to convince Khartoum that its army would not be able to subdue the Sudan’s people Liberation Movement (SPLM); in 2005 President Al Bashar agreed to   a peace treaty   granting  the south autonomy first, with a referendum being held five years later to decide whether the people of the south wanted to remain autonomous or preferred to cut their ties to Sudan and become independent.  A local government was set up, headed by a president who was also the head of the government as well as the vice president of Sudan.   John Garang, the legendary leader of the SPLM and the man who led his movement to victory, was supposed to assume the position; however he was killed in an helicopter accident. His second in command, Salva Kiir Mayardit,   took over and is expected to be the first president of the newly independent country as of July 9 (   An impressive  98.83 % had opted for independence at the referendum held in January 2011).
The task of the new government will not be easy. South Sudan is under-developed and draws 98% of its revenues from oil. Most of the oil reserves of Sudan were situated in the south; without oil North Sudan would be fatally hit, and the peace treaty stipulated that the two countries would have to decide on a fair division of the oil revenues. It has not been done yet and it is to be expected that it will be a bumpy road.  The border has yet to be delineated as well, a task which will lead to more conflicts; for instance in the oil rich Abey area,  situated between north and south Sudan, a separate referendum was to be held according to the 2005 peace treaty; however north and south have not been able to agree on who would have the right to vote (i.e which tribes belonged to the South and which to the North)   and the referendum has been postponed. There has been renewed fighting there in the last few months, the army of North Sudan having entered the region in violation of the peace treaty and   driven away the  SPLM and the local government it the movement had set up. A few days ago a special African summit held in Equatorial Guinea managed  with the help of Great Britain to get North and South Sudan to agree to turn the area into a demilitarized zone. Ethiopia volunteered to deploy 4 200 soldiers to keep the peace and the Security Council gave its approval to the move. However this is a temporary measure and no solution is in sight.
Another conflict which flared recently is that of South Kordofan, a region situated along the disputed border. Fighting has erupted in June between the army of North Sudan and elements of the SPLM who had ruled the area during the years of civil war and are refusing to relinquish their hold though they are supposed to do so under the peace treaty.
An estimated two thousand people have been killed so far  in Abey and South  Kordofan .
This does not conclude the woes of the new republic.  There is considerable unrest among different ethnic groups; sporadic clashes have occurred in nine of  its   ten districts. One of the main issue is whether the SPLM, which rules the country and controls the army, will install a true democracy and make an orderly change of government possible in the future, or whether the South Sudanese will find themselves living under yet another African dictatorship; such has been the case in most African countries, the leaders of the liberation movements having refused to accept democratic rule and having found dubious ways of staying in power, leading to corruption and dealing a mortal blow to economic development.
North Sudan itself is not in an easy situation, having had to surrender to the army of the SPLM and agree to the loss of a third of its territory – where most of the oil reserves are situated. Though Bashir has agreed to come to the formal proclamation of independence,  he has yet to fully accept the new state of affairs. With many potential sources of conflict remaining unsolved, there is a real risk of renewed fighting. It should also be noted that the war in the Darfur province in the East is still going on, with hundreds of thousands people being killed or forced to flee.  This has led to Bashir being indicted in the International Criminal  Court which HAS  issued a warrant for his arrest. Incidentally this has not prevented the Sudanese leader from travelling freely; only last week he returned from an official visit to China (Not being a signatory to the treaty establishing the Court, China was under no obligation to arrest him).
To this volatile mix one has to add a number of Islamic movements such as the Muslim Brothers and Salafists groups in Sudan and in the Arab world who vehemently oppose parting with areas of Sudan and letting a non Muslim country take over. This is contrary to their views according to which any country have been under Muslim rule should remain forever Muslim.  (They are against  Israel for the same reason. )
Egypt follows the situation very closely.  The White Nile, which contributes 20% to the waters of the Nile river, goes through South Sudan. Egypt,  locked into a bitter conflict with African countries along the upper Nile about the repartition of its waters, is very much interested in being in good terms with the new nation. A number of official delegations have already visited the country, offering assistance in a number of fields such as agriculture.
Of special interest is the question of the relations with Israel.  Last year officials in South Sudan have stated in a number of occasions that establishing diplomatic relations with Israel was on the agenda. This led to violent attacks from Arab elements, to which the Director General of the Information department replied (according to A-Shark al Awsat, 15.1.2011) that South Sudan had no enemies and would establish diplomatic relations according to its own interests, adding  that the country’s inhabitants were not Moslems and that South Sudan would not join the Arab League. The editor of the daily  South Sudan paper, “The Citizen” , said that there was no doubt but that the country would establish diplomatic ties with Israel, based mainly on economic interests and that South Sudan would want to make use of Israel’s expertise in the utilization of water resources. However, in answer to a question, the deputy minister for regional cooperation, Mazouk Walden declared on 30/6 to “Sudan Tribune” that the new nation would first establish diplomatic relations with neighboring countries.
The republic of South Sudan, born out of a bloody conflicts, will not have an easy beginning.  Vital conflicts with Khartoum are still unsolved; there is considerable unrest about its new citizens, uneasy about the real intentions of the Sudan’s People Liberation Movement. The new rulers will have to work hard to gain the trust of their people, to find a solution to the conflicts and to lay the foundation for economic growth in the war torn country. Let us send the new nation our best wishes and hopes that it will soon be able to take its rightful place among the countries of Africa and in the international community.