CLOCK’S TICKING TOWARD AN IRANIAN BOMB
Yossi Klein Halevi
Globe and Mail, January 10, 2009
Even as the international community remains focused on the heartbreaking images emerging from ’s confrontation with the jihadist Hamas in Gaza, the countdown has begun for a far more devastating tragedy that could lead the
Middle East
toward apocalypse.
According to Israeli intelligence estimates, the time remaining before
is capable of producing a nuclear bomb may now be measured in months, not years. A nuclear would end hopes for the eventual emergence of a sane
Middle East
. And if economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts fail to dissuade the mullahs from abandoning their nuclear program, is likely to launch a pre-emptive strike against
’s nuclear facilities. And some Arab leaders may well be hoping that
will do precisely that.
Shared dread of a nuclear has helped create the first tacit alliance between
and Sunni Arab states. So desperate are some Arab leaders to forestall an Iranian bomb that they have in effect sided with against
’s proxies in the Arab world.… What was inconceivable just a few years ago—that some Arab states would side with
against fellow Muslims—has now become a pattern in regional politics.… Arab countries fear Iranian hegemony, fulfilment of the ancient Persian ambition of dominating the Middle East.…
What keeps Israeli strategists awake at night is fear that a new strain of apocalyptic Shia theology—positing that the Hidden Imam will return when the faithful use sufficient military force to wipe out evil—has emerged within the Iranian leadership. To be sure, not all of
’s leaders subscribe to the new theology… [but] the circle around President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has passionately embraced that politicized messianism. And while Mr. Ahmadinejad is not the ultimate authority in
Tehran
, he may well be positioned to gain access, say, to a nuclear suitcase [or pass it] on to a terrorist proxy. Imagine a scenario like this… a previously unknown terrorist group announces that it has planted a suitcase with a nuclear device in a European capital and will detonate the bomb if
retaliates. Would
be able to protect itself against such terrorism? Would any Western state, for that matter?…
No less worrying, the prospect of a nuclear
has triggered a process that could lead to a nuclear arms race in the world’s least stable region. Several Arab countries, including and
, have declared their interest in acquiring nuclear power, ostensibly for peaceful purposes, but in fact timed as a response to Iranian nuclear ambitions.…
A nuclear
can still be stopped by peaceful means. The decline in world oil prices has badly undermined the already fragile Iranian economy; intensifying sanctions could encourage opposition to a widely detested regime.… If the sanctions efforts fail, the thankless task of militarily preventing a nuclear will fall, by default, to
… Nevertheless, a rare consensus exists among Israeli leaders—from left-wing Labour to centrist Kadima to right-wing Likud—that the Jewish state must thwart a nuclear
, even at the risk of all-out war against the Israeli home front.…
[Barack] Obama’s first test on the Iranian crisis will be how he responds to the
Gaza
crisis. ’s operation against
’s ally Hamas will provide the new president with an unexpected opportunity. If he backs and makes sure that Hamas achieves no diplomatic gains in exchange for a ceasefire, he will deliver a strategic defeat to
and enter negotiations from a position of strength. If, on the other hand, he pressures
into easing the siege against Hamas and allows the jihadist organization to proclaim victory, the Iranians will rightly conclude that the inexperienced president poses no real obstacle to their nuclear goals.…
(Yossi Klein Halevi is a senior fellow at the Adelson Institute
for Strategic Studies of the
Shalem
Center
in
Jerusalem
.)
